Below are examples of the predictor results for a few world class athletes. Predictions come close to actual personal bests. Deviations from actual personal bests are well below 1 %.
1. Jakob Ingebrigtsen (athletics)
Jakob Ingebrigtsen is one of the most versatile athletes. He holds world records 2000 m en 3000 m, is the 2021 Olympic champion 1500 m. He was twice world champion 5000 m and won European championships 1500, 5000m, 3000 steeple, cross-country and various indoor titles.
While using 1500 m and 5000 m as inputs. we find quite close agreements at 1 mile and 2000 m. His 3000 m world record is well below prediction, one might say it is outstanding. Given his excellent cross country performances over distances beyond 10 km, one might argue that his respectable best time on 10 km indeed leaves room for substantial improvement as suggested by the prediction.
| Athlete | Distance (m) | Personal bests | Predictions | Deviation (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Ingebrigtsen | 1500 | 03:26,70 | ||
| 1609 | 03:43,70 | 00:03:43,21 | -0,22 | |
| 2000 | 04:43,13 | 00:04:43,19 | 0,02 | |
| 3000 | 07:17,55 | 00:07:20,84 | 0,75 | |
| 5000 | 12:48,45 | |||
| 10000 | 27:54:00 | 00:27:08,38 | -2,73 |
2. Eliud Kipchoge (athletics)
Eliud Kipchoge is one of the world’s best long distance runners, winning Olympic gold om 5000 m and the marathon. He also was the winner of the World marathon majors, indicating stable top performances on the marathon.
While using his 1500 m and 10 km records as inputs, we find quite accurate estimates of hij potiential at 1609 m, 3 km and 5 km. Even the extrapolated half marathon and full marathon predictions come quite close. We know he can do it!
| Athlete | Distance (m) | Personal bests | Predictions | Deviation (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliud Kipchoge | 1500 | 03:33,25 | ||
| 1609 | 03:50,4 | 00:03:49,86 | -0,23 | |
| 3000 | 07:27,66 | 00:07:27,04 | -0,14 | |
| 5000 | 12:46,53 | 00:12:50,28 | 0,49 | |
| 10000 | 26:49,02 | |||
| 21098 | 59:25:00 | 00:59:10,27 | -0,41 | |
| 42196 | 2:01:09 | 02:00:04,50 | -0,89 |
3. Paula Radcliffe (athletics)
Paula Radcliffe is former marathon world record holder. She is a typical “diesel” showing limited speed decay with distance, Accuracies of predictions are stunning. Only the 3 km seems an outlier. Her extrapolated 800 m prediction reflects a relatively weak performance, which is understandable, however, because she is evidently excels at long distances.
| Athlete | 800Distance (m) | Personal bests | Predictions | Deviations (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paula Radcliffe | 800 | 00:02:06,38 | ||
| 1000 | 00:02:39,92 | |||
| 1500 | 04:05,19 | |||
| 3000 | 08:22,2 | 00:08:28,51 | 1,26 | |
| 5000 | 14:29,11 | 00:14:29,79 | 0,08 | |
| 10000 | 30:01,09 | 00:30:00,01 | -0,06 | |
| 21098 | 1:05:40 | 01:05:34,99 | -0,13 | |
| 42196 | 2:15:25 |
4. Beatrice Chebet (athletics)
Beatrice Chebet is 10.000 world record holder.
Using her outstanding results on 1500 m and 10 km, the predicted 3 km and 5 km performances come close to the associated personal bests. The results may even suggest that slight improvements for those distances are within reach. If she would ever try to run the 1000 m, 2:32 would be an achievable target.
| Athlete | Distance (m) | Personal bests | Predictions | Deviation (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beatrice Chebet | 1000 | 00:02:32,87 | ||
| 1500 | 03:54,73 | |||
| 3000 | 08:11,56 | 00:08:08,01 | -0,72 | |
| 5000 | 13:58,06 | 00:13:56,15 | -0,23 | |
| 10000 | 28:54,14 |
5. Sven Kramer (speed skating)
Sven Kramer is 9-fold allround world champion and olympic golddigger.
Staring from his 1500 m and 10k (neglecting his 500 m, because the effects of the start would affect the reliability of the predictions), we find acceptable prognoses for the intermediates. His 5000 m personal record seems relatively outstanding.
| Athlete | Distance (m) | Personal bests | Predictions | Deviation (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sven Kramer | 1500 | 01:43,54 | ||
| 3000 | 03:35,93 | 00:03:34,60 | -0,62 | |
| 5000 | 06:03,32 | 00:06:06,91 | 0,99 | |
| 10000 | 12:38,89 |
6. Ian Thorpe (swimming)
There are only few swimmers that excel at various swimming distances. Ian Thorpe, 5-fold Olympic gold medal winner/11-fold world champion, is one of them. Starting from his outstanding 100 m and 400 m performance, the predictor yields 1:43,58 for his 200 m, which is very close indeed to his actual personal best at 200 m.
| Athlete | Distance (m) | Personal bests | Predictions | Deviation (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Thorpe | 100 | 00:48,56 | ||
| 200 | 01:44,06 | 00:01:43,58 | 0,46 | |
| 400 | 03:40,08 |
